Excess rainfall has led to multiple flooding and landslide incidents in the northern and southern regions, resulting in loss of lives and property.
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The first half of monsoon season saw scanty rainfall in few regions of the country and an excess in the rest, leading to a flood situation devastating lives and property. However, sowing of kharif crops has been impressive so far, while water storage in reservoirs has also increased.
On a cumulative basis, rainfall was 6.3 percent above the long-period average (LPA) as of August 4, according to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data analysis by Barclays. This compares to 2.7 percent LPA rainfall in last week. With that, the first half of the monsoon season concluded with another week of above-average rainfall, says Barclays.
Excess rainfall was almost broad-based across regions, with deficit reducing in rainfall deficient regions like northwest and surplus increasing in regions which were already experiencing excess rainfall like south and central India. However, excess rainfall has led to multiple flooding and landslide incidents in the northern and southern regions, resulting in loss of lives and property. On July 30, heavy rainfall led to massive landslides in the Wayanad district of Kerala, which killed people and destroyed major agricultural land. Till the seventh day of rescue operation in Wayand, death toll was reportedly over 360 with more than 150 still missing.
The IMD expects second half of the season (August-September) to also see above normal rainfall over most parts of the country. For the month of August, rainfall is likely to be within normal range. IMD forecasts La Niña conditions (which are associated with heavy rainfall in India) to set in towards August-end.
Also read: Rain Watch for July 25-31: Monsoon progresses, reservoir storage levels are up
As of August 2, area covering 90.5 million hectares (ha mln) had been sown compared to 81.2mln ha by end of July 26. This indicates about three percent higher than the year-earlier period. “The pace of sowing is likely to be gradual as area covered so far is already more than 80 percent of normal area,” says Barclays.
Area coverage under rice, which was lagging year-on-year until the week ending July 26, picked up significantly over the past week, and is now 5.3 percent higher. Acreage for coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds and sugarcane is also higher, but that for cotton is significantly lower (-8.8 percent YoY). This is likely driven by farmers’ decisions to shift towards growing pulses/maize amid lower cotton prices, says Barclays.
With excess rainfall across most regions over the past week, reservoir levels are reducing the gap with historical averages. As of August 1, storage in 150 reservoirs stood at 51 percent of total capacity (higher than 39 percent in last week). This translates into 94 percent of the live storage of the corresponding period of last year and 107 percent of normal storage.
