It’s 2025, Donald Trump’s second term as president of the United States is about to commence, and the signs are clear that the new administration will be on the side of deregulation.

Many U.S.-based travel technology industry executives are optimistic about the bigger picture. For airlines and travel payment providers, deregulation creates the opportunity to upgrade products, ease compliance, expand orchestration services and form new partnerships. But deregulation will also reshape existing processes and relationships by changing the established rules that guide how different parts of the system work together.

Another layer to navigate is the approach to consumer protection measures, international trade policies and antitrust enforcement. All these areas are in the administration’s sights and have the potential to impact an airline’s top and bottom lines.

IATA’s official take is that the Trump administration brings “significant uncertainties.” On one hand, “tariffs and trade wars would likely dampen demand for air cargo [and] business travel.” Conversely, “gains from deregulation and business simplification could be significant.”

Airline executives are also largely bullish, with Delta’s CEO Ed Bastian widely reported to have welcomed the new administration as “a breath of fresh air.”

As with any governmental transfer of power, change may come quickly or gradually — but change is assured. There are five specific areas where the regulatory goalposts relating directly or indirectly to payments (and therefore airlines’ financial performance) might shift and which airlines and their technology partners must plan for.

• Deregulation and the drive for next-generation payment processes

Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as the poster child of Trump’s deregulatory efforts. The Biden administration’s executive order on AI is focused on risk and safety but is likely to be re-angled with a bigger emphasis on innovation before the codification process begins.

Several high-impact payment-related use cases for AI, as identified by Phocuswright’s Global State of Payments 2024 report, include improving harmonization and cohesiveness among interdependent systems, detecting fraud and automating chargebacks. In a more liberal regulatory environment, developers and engineers can work on solutions that help airlines extract more value from their AI-enabled payment processes.

• Refund rules rolled back, but the tech work should continue

The decisions from Department of Transportation (DoT) directly impact airline revenues and profitability. New rules, including mandating automatic cash compensation for flight delays, were a game-changer for passengers but also for airlines and their third-party technology platforms, which were not set up to deliver what the DoT demanded of them and faced a challenge to upgrade accordingly.

It’s possible that less activist DoT policy will water down many of these new provisions. However, the imperative remains for airlines to work with their technology providers to find the optimal way to manage and comply with statutory refund requirements.

As the pandemic showed, airlines that partner with a proactive payment technology provider that understands the nuances of the travel industry can work this pain point to their advantage by communicating and executing a refund policy, which can serve as a point of differentiation.

• Regulations around digital payments to protect consumers

Open banking, alternative payment methods, buy-now-pay-later and other fintech initiatives are case-study validations of the good things that can happen when established industries – such as financial services – are deregulated.

However, there are several legal challenges under way to new rules on digital payments proposed by the Biden Administration through the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). The consensus is that these consumer-friendly provisions might also be rolled back, potentially reducing regulatory oversight on how travel tech companies manage transactions.

The CFPB has already attracted the attention of the new administration’s efficiency advisor, Elon Musk. He posted on X his desire to “delete” the department. Reducing the role of the CFPB may simplify compliance for travel platforms managing digital payments but also reinforces the need for secure, reliable payment processes.

• Antitrust, consolidation, tech opportunities

U.S.-based airline executives with M&A on their 2025-2029 roadmap will have more options and a greater chance of success under the more lenient stance of the Trump administration.

The change in approach to large-scale M&A in the aviation industry will reshape competitive dynamics for both airlines and the broader travel tech ecosystem. When businesses combine, decisions are made on retaining or replacing vendors, sales level agreements and key performance indicators are rewritten and costs are scrutinized. Suppliers with a proven record of simplifying the complexities of travel payment systems will be in demand.

• Trade policy and global implications

U.S.-based airlines must be ready for the direct and indirect consequences of tariffs being used as an economic tool. The future of trade relations between the U.S. and China remains tense, but it is not the only bilateral relationship in line for review under Trump.

In this context, international airlines must prepare for supply chain disruption, air space access issues, fuel cost volatility, foreign exchange variability, shifting patterns of traveler demand and more.

International payment processes will be caught up in this new economic and political landscape, and providers already set up to route transactions to different acquirers will be at an advantage. Familiarity with the complexities of aviation payment processes is another basic requirement, but payment solution providers need to prove to their airline partners that their systems are agile and flexible enough to respond in almost real-time to the changes ahead.

Balancing optimism and caution amid uncertainty

Although airlines are used to the complexities of operating globally, the changes likely to be brought in by the Trump administration are more consequential than usual. The policy shifts that impact payments, technology and other operational aspects of commercial aviation may not capture the same headlines as those with geopolitical and macroeconomic implications. But they will affect airline profitability and deserve very close attention.

For airlines, material changes are ahead of time in their operations and cost structures. All these will impact revenues and profitability, dictating the budget they must invest in the tech to help them successfully navigate the new landscape.

But invest, they must. Few airlines have the resources to develop scalable solutions in-house at speed, so a better option would be to find a proactive partner with domain expertise in airline payments that can turn regulatory uncertainty into an opportunity for long-term growth, operational efficiencies and a better traveler experience.